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Consequences of a Trade War

Brandon: Neil and I started a conversation ( Is a Trade Deficit Bad for the United States ) in which I asked if it was bad to run a trade deficit and whether tariffs work to correct trace deficits. All of this was in response to President Trump beginning to enact tariffs (as he had promised to do throughout his campaign). At first these tariffs were on steel and aluminum, but there is broad discussion of other products as our trading partners threaten retaliation. As the US threatens or implement tariffs and our trading partners respond with tit-for-tat escalation the press has been talking about "trade wars". So my question to Neil was: Can we win a trade war? Trade Wars: China Strikes Back   What history teaches us about who wins in trade wars   German Chickens, Pickup Trucks, And De-Escalating The U.S.-China Trade War   How trade wars end and why Trump’s will be different   Neil: When President Trump tweeted: "Trade wars are good and easy to win." ...
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Is a Trade Deficit Bad for the United States

Brandon: President Trump has recently announced large tariffs on steel and aluminum. He has also announced tariffs on China for their trade practices. Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs, but with 'flexible' exceptions Trump announces tariffs on $60bn in Chinese imports This has induced announcements of retaliatory tariffs from several countries, notably China. China retaliates against U.S. tariffs, escalates trade war The President has explained that the purpose of these tariffs is to correct the balance of trade, specifically with China. U.S.-China Trade Deficit Hits Record, Fueling Trade Fight The economic press has produced a lot of reaction to this news. Why Donald Trump's China tariffs are likely to be a bad thing for him Trump's trade tariffs: Long on rhetoric, short on impact? Trump’s Tariff Plan Leaves Blue-Collar Winners and Losers I'm not sure what to make of all this. Since my friend Neil is an economist, I thought I'd ask ...
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Future Questions

Brandon: I'll use this post to keep track of potential future questions. What's up with productivity growth? Is it automation, globalization, or immigration that is killing manufacturing jobs? What is the heath of manufacturing in the US? What is the comparison between manufacturing and manufacturing jobs over time? What do we do with all the folks who can't get blue collar jobs? When does the US debt become a problem?  What will happen if we have to correct US debt sharply (say interest rates rise sharply), through taxes, cuts or both?  Why is health care so expensive? What are the main drivers of health cost? What are the structural components of the health care system? Why do hospital emergency rooms have little or no competition for non-intensive care? Is end of life care a disproportionate driver of health care cost? If so, what policy would help to 'bend the curve'? How is it that western democracies (other than us) can afford universal health ca...
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